Välviljans futilitet

Ur tidigare inlägg om larmandet kring mopedolyckor (där jag för övrigt självfallet borde ha baserat diagrammet på det verkliga antalet 15-17-åringar):

Ytterligare en aspekt skulle kunna vara att nyblivna körkortsinnehavare som ägt en moped kan tänkas vara inblandade i färre olyckor än de utan tidigare motorvana, men jag förstår naturligtvis att sådan statistik inte finns tillgänglig.

Motsvarande statistik finns dock - från Los Angeles Times, via Popehat:

For more than a decade, California and other states have kept their newest teen drivers on a tight leash, restricting the hours when they can get behind the wheel and whom they can bring along as passengers. Public officials were confident that their get-tough policies were saving lives.

Now, though, a nationwide analysis of crash data suggests that the restrictions may have backfired: While the number of fatal crashes among 16- and 17-year-old drivers has fallen, deadly accidents among 18-to-19-year-olds have risen by an almost equal amount. In effect, experts say, the programs that dole out driving privileges in stages, however well-intentioned, have merely shifted the ranks of inexperienced drivers from younger to older teens.