Nåväl, grundrapporten kostar 150 kronor att komma åt, men Human Security Report verkar ge stöd åt siffrorna. Jag hittar dock bara sammanfattningen av 2006 års rapport (pdf), men rapporten från 2005 ligger ute i fulltext.
Ur rapporten: Angående vad som orsakat de historiskt unikt positiva siffrorna gällande något längre tidsperioder än tre år så skriver de i 2005-rapporten:
- A dramatic increase in the number of democracies. In 1946, there were 20 democracies in the world; in 2005, there were 88. Many scholars argue that this trend has reduced the likelihood of international war because democratic states almost never fight each other.
- An increase in economic interdependence. Greater global economic interdependence has increased the costs of cross-border aggression while significantly reducing its benefits.
- A decline in the economic utility of war. The most effective path to prosperity in modern economies is through increasing productivity and international trade, not through seizing land and raw materials. In addition, the existence of an open global trading regime means it is nearly always cheaper to buy resources from overseas than to use force to acquire them.
- Growth in international institutions. The greatly increased involvement by governments in international institutions can help reduce the incidence of conflict.
Och för säkerhets skull förtydligar de även:
These interrelated and mutually reinforcing trends have given rise to what is often referred to as the ‘liberal peace’ — a transnational security system that is credited with having created an unprecedented 60 years of peace within Western Europe, indeed between all the liberal democracies.
Och ett diagram ur rapporten:
Öppna gränser och tillväxt ger alltså fred, och världen har blivit fantastiskt mycket bättre på senare tid - slutsatser som torde förvåna få.
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